37% of the US adult Internet population used online social networking at least once a month - this year.
70% of all US teens visit social network sites on a monthly basis - this year.
49% of all online adults and 84% of online teens in the US will use social networking each month - by 2011.
Friday, February 8, 2008
From Pew Internet via TechCrunch
39% of online teens share their own artistic creations online, such as artwork, photos, stories, or videos
33% create or work on webpages or blogs for others, including those for groups they belong to, friends, or school assignments
28% have created their own online journal or blog, up from 19% in 2004.
27% maintain their own personal webpage
26% remix content they find online into their own creations
33% create or work on webpages or blogs for others, including those for groups they belong to, friends, or school assignments
28% have created their own online journal or blog, up from 19% in 2004.
27% maintain their own personal webpage
26% remix content they find online into their own creations
According to Billboard Magazine
While not one track sold more than 500,000 digital units in 2004, 114 did in 2007, almost double the 61 tracks that crossed that threshold in 2006. Meanwhile, 36 tracks passed the 1 million sales mark, more than double the 17 in 2006.
The reality is:
The reality is: creators of packages or decks (artists) are actually uploading assets (music, images, video, schedule info, lyrics, etc.) to a database that resides on a system of servers (The Open System), and what users (fans) are manipulating, sharing or sending is a package of “links” that are tied to a Matrix of Permissions.The Matrix of Permissions is actually what ALLOWS things to happen.
Let’s say for example, an independent software developer wants to make a web-based music player for social networks that enables fans to “upload” any number of FAT Packages into a widget that features a slick cover flow interface; let’s call this widget the “FAT Cover Flow Player”.If the software designer has done a great job, the user will perceive that he or she is uploading, dragging, dropping and sorting a bunch of FAT Packages.
In reality, the user is transferring pointers or links to the assets that reside in The Open System, and when the “transfer” occurs, the Matrix of Permissions allows the FAT Cover Flow Player to access the assets within each package, and based upon the permission settings – do something with those assets, such a play music and display images and lyrics, and with or without advertisements. Conceptually, the same thing would happen when a user wants to transfer Packages to a portable device.
This seems much more complicated then tossing around MP3s, however the systems, the software, the devices and the networks we use now are much more powerful and capable than how we devote them to loving MP3s. If we want to restore the recorded music industry to growth and profitability, we have to invest in these types of seemingly-complex systems that are capable of TRANSPORTING value; that is, the type of value that consumers will pay for.
Let’s say for example, an independent software developer wants to make a web-based music player for social networks that enables fans to “upload” any number of FAT Packages into a widget that features a slick cover flow interface; let’s call this widget the “FAT Cover Flow Player”.If the software designer has done a great job, the user will perceive that he or she is uploading, dragging, dropping and sorting a bunch of FAT Packages.
In reality, the user is transferring pointers or links to the assets that reside in The Open System, and when the “transfer” occurs, the Matrix of Permissions allows the FAT Cover Flow Player to access the assets within each package, and based upon the permission settings – do something with those assets, such a play music and display images and lyrics, and with or without advertisements. Conceptually, the same thing would happen when a user wants to transfer Packages to a portable device.
This seems much more complicated then tossing around MP3s, however the systems, the software, the devices and the networks we use now are much more powerful and capable than how we devote them to loving MP3s. If we want to restore the recorded music industry to growth and profitability, we have to invest in these types of seemingly-complex systems that are capable of TRANSPORTING value; that is, the type of value that consumers will pay for.
CS - COOL STREAMS
CS - COOL STREAMS – THE NEW RADIO
If a FAT Package is the new “album” that fans acquire when they believe in an artist, then a Cool Stream is the new “radio” that consumers will use when they want to passively listen to music.
CS - COOL STREAMS ARE CUSTOM STREAMS
Music recommendation engines combined with music streaming services will enable anyone, almost anywhere, to dial into their own custom stream of music. Simple interfaces already enable users to funnel and filter music like never before. Basic programming options such as these (basic examples below) will continually shape the streams of music we passively listen to.
Enter twenty songs you like.
Enter five songs you hate.
Press/Click here if you never want to here that song again.
Press/Click here to skip that song into next week.
Press/Click here to put that song into heavy rotation.
Slide this dial to balance your playlist between existing hits and new music.
Press/Click here to add that song to your favorites.
Enable my friends to add songs to my playlist.
CS - COOL STREAMS EVERYWHERE
It won’t be long before you can listen to your own cool stream everywhere. Cool streams are already available on your computer, and more and more handheld devices will offer this capability. The automotive industry is embracing this technology, and you will even be able to push your stream into the locations you are traveling to such as bars and nightclubs, albeit with some restrictions.CS -
CROSS STREAMING
What happens when 100 people are trying to push their streams into the same bar? The "stream god" puts all of the streams into a funnel and plays what makes sense – given everyone’s lists and preferences.
CS - STREAM BIDDING
Want to listen to your Cool Stream in the pub between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM? Using your mobile phone, outbid the other patrons for the right to listen to your stream. Stream bidding is another example of the “user interfaces” that will change how music is consumed.
CS - GETTING IN WILL BE EASY
Have you heard the phrase “an ass for every seat”? Music recommendation engines will become so freaking useful over the next three years that it will be possible for the listeners that enjoy your exact flavor, color, genre, niche and brand of music, even if it’s just one listener, to FINALLY find your music. Every artist will have an opportunity to find the perfect genetic mate between his/her music and the fan(s) that may love it.
CS - EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE
The type of streaming services described here will be EVERYWHERE and ANYWHERE. This is a bit of important redundancy, however this stuff will be so prevalent in life that it will seem like “pennies from heaven” for artists. Meaning: your music will be placed into so many streams, so often, and in so many places, that the micro revenue opportunities will be endless. Remember, these things will find the “ass for every seat”.
CS - GETTING PUSHED OUT WILL BE EASY
While getting into these streams may just mean passing some quality threshold standards, I believe getting pushed out may be just as easy. Let’s say your new song has been streamed 99 times, and on every occasion someone pushes the “I never want to hear that song again” button - well, your song may be on the way out of the system for good - or at the very least, your play frequency will drop to minimal.
CS - WITH ADS OR WITHOUT
It’s probably obvious, but services offering Cool Streams will make streams available with ads or without. In the case of without, consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time. Either way, you will share in the revenue streams that are generated from the use of these services.
CS - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Unfortunately, I believe that the amount of, or fraction of “pennies” you may make from each stream is still unsettled, or it has not been clearly established in my mind. Some services are paying artists directly, while other services are using the established industry-royalty-infrastructure. What’s more clear to me is this: while today’s music industry can be characterized as “hit driven”, tomorrows music industry will be characterized as a “slow burn”.
CS - THE SLOW BURN
Let’s say for example that you have just created a very good (subjective - I know) alternative rock song; you entered the song into the recommendation-god-machine, and then you went about the business of your life. Given the complexity of the machine, the ebb and flow of popular culture, the size of the population, the amount of songs in the machine, and the durability of good songs – I would say that it MAY take two years to generate a return you can make a car payment with. Of course some songs will go like wildfire, but other songs may just slowly burn until they have been filtered into the adoption curve; which is continually shaped by culture and technology.
CS - WHAT CAN YOU DO NOW?
As I said at the top of this post, go back to making great music; that’s the best thing an artist can do period. There are a couple of other things you should consider: The Copyright Royalty Board is going to rule on the royalty rates that webcasters must pay when offering services such as those described here; you should consider how this may impact your future. I plan to look deeply into this – stay tuned. Also, be careful about tossing around your publishing rights. You may not be generating much of an income from publishing now, however this may be the horse that generates all of your winnings in the future.
Here are some questions I have been asked about FAT Packages, and my broad answer to all of the following questions.
QUESTIONS
How would packages be played in a song/media player?
How would one use packages on a social network?
Can I add my own content to a package before sharing it?
Can I break a package apart?
How can I use a package when disconnected from the Internet?
How would I use a package in a device?
ANSWER
The visual metaphor of a package or deck (shown here) is great for enabling users to grasp the concept of something larger and more powerful than an MP3; it is also great for building user interfaces around; as a software designer can enable people to perceive that they are truly building, managing, sharing and sending something concrete and tangible
If a FAT Package is the new “album” that fans acquire when they believe in an artist, then a Cool Stream is the new “radio” that consumers will use when they want to passively listen to music.
CS - COOL STREAMS ARE CUSTOM STREAMS
Music recommendation engines combined with music streaming services will enable anyone, almost anywhere, to dial into their own custom stream of music. Simple interfaces already enable users to funnel and filter music like never before. Basic programming options such as these (basic examples below) will continually shape the streams of music we passively listen to.
Enter twenty songs you like.
Enter five songs you hate.
Press/Click here if you never want to here that song again.
Press/Click here to skip that song into next week.
Press/Click here to put that song into heavy rotation.
Slide this dial to balance your playlist between existing hits and new music.
Press/Click here to add that song to your favorites.
Enable my friends to add songs to my playlist.
CS - COOL STREAMS EVERYWHERE
It won’t be long before you can listen to your own cool stream everywhere. Cool streams are already available on your computer, and more and more handheld devices will offer this capability. The automotive industry is embracing this technology, and you will even be able to push your stream into the locations you are traveling to such as bars and nightclubs, albeit with some restrictions.CS -
CROSS STREAMING
What happens when 100 people are trying to push their streams into the same bar? The "stream god" puts all of the streams into a funnel and plays what makes sense – given everyone’s lists and preferences.
CS - STREAM BIDDING
Want to listen to your Cool Stream in the pub between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM? Using your mobile phone, outbid the other patrons for the right to listen to your stream. Stream bidding is another example of the “user interfaces” that will change how music is consumed.
CS - GETTING IN WILL BE EASY
Have you heard the phrase “an ass for every seat”? Music recommendation engines will become so freaking useful over the next three years that it will be possible for the listeners that enjoy your exact flavor, color, genre, niche and brand of music, even if it’s just one listener, to FINALLY find your music. Every artist will have an opportunity to find the perfect genetic mate between his/her music and the fan(s) that may love it.
CS - EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE
The type of streaming services described here will be EVERYWHERE and ANYWHERE. This is a bit of important redundancy, however this stuff will be so prevalent in life that it will seem like “pennies from heaven” for artists. Meaning: your music will be placed into so many streams, so often, and in so many places, that the micro revenue opportunities will be endless. Remember, these things will find the “ass for every seat”.
CS - GETTING PUSHED OUT WILL BE EASY
While getting into these streams may just mean passing some quality threshold standards, I believe getting pushed out may be just as easy. Let’s say your new song has been streamed 99 times, and on every occasion someone pushes the “I never want to hear that song again” button - well, your song may be on the way out of the system for good - or at the very least, your play frequency will drop to minimal.
CS - WITH ADS OR WITHOUT
It’s probably obvious, but services offering Cool Streams will make streams available with ads or without. In the case of without, consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time. Either way, you will share in the revenue streams that are generated from the use of these services.
CS - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Unfortunately, I believe that the amount of, or fraction of “pennies” you may make from each stream is still unsettled, or it has not been clearly established in my mind. Some services are paying artists directly, while other services are using the established industry-royalty-infrastructure. What’s more clear to me is this: while today’s music industry can be characterized as “hit driven”, tomorrows music industry will be characterized as a “slow burn”.
CS - THE SLOW BURN
Let’s say for example that you have just created a very good (subjective - I know) alternative rock song; you entered the song into the recommendation-god-machine, and then you went about the business of your life. Given the complexity of the machine, the ebb and flow of popular culture, the size of the population, the amount of songs in the machine, and the durability of good songs – I would say that it MAY take two years to generate a return you can make a car payment with. Of course some songs will go like wildfire, but other songs may just slowly burn until they have been filtered into the adoption curve; which is continually shaped by culture and technology.
CS - WHAT CAN YOU DO NOW?
As I said at the top of this post, go back to making great music; that’s the best thing an artist can do period. There are a couple of other things you should consider: The Copyright Royalty Board is going to rule on the royalty rates that webcasters must pay when offering services such as those described here; you should consider how this may impact your future. I plan to look deeply into this – stay tuned. Also, be careful about tossing around your publishing rights. You may not be generating much of an income from publishing now, however this may be the horse that generates all of your winnings in the future.
Here are some questions I have been asked about FAT Packages, and my broad answer to all of the following questions.
QUESTIONS
How would packages be played in a song/media player?
How would one use packages on a social network?
Can I add my own content to a package before sharing it?
Can I break a package apart?
How can I use a package when disconnected from the Internet?
How would I use a package in a device?
ANSWER
The visual metaphor of a package or deck (shown here) is great for enabling users to grasp the concept of something larger and more powerful than an MP3; it is also great for building user interfaces around; as a software designer can enable people to perceive that they are truly building, managing, sharing and sending something concrete and tangible
FP - FAT PACKAGES
FP - ROLL YOUR OWN
In the near future, you will be able to sit down in front of something I will call your Digital Asset Browser; it’s something like iTunes for ALL of your digital stuff - including: your songs, your images, your blog entries, your videos, your show schedule, your fan widgets, your multi-player fan games, your friends list, your comments, your art, your lyrics, your links, your ringtones, YOUR advertisers, and etc. You will then be able to CUSTOM ROLL all of this stuff into a tidy FAT PACKAGE and sell it to your fans.
FP - RUNS ON EVERY DEVICE AND EVERYWHERE
Your Fat Package will run on every single capable mobile and desktop device on earth including television, and it will be deployable upon every social network on the planet.
FP - THE FREE AD-SUPPORTED VERSIONThe FREE, sharable, tradable version will be ad-supported. You will receive a portion of the ad revenue when users interact with your Fat Package. If you are worried about a world gone crazy with advertising, then you should know that this type of package would be one of the most attractive advertising vehicles on earth. The matrix of quality user info (iPhones spitting out profile data for example) combined with the “information-generating” value of this type of engaging content will attract higher CPMs (dollars per thousand impressions) then web pages do now.
FP - THE NO ADS VERSION
Consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time, and they will have the option of applying these minutes to playing with your FAT Package without being molested by intrusive ads. You will also have the option of turning features on and off depending on which version (ads or not) of your FAT Package fans are using.
FP - THEFT WON’T MATTER
As soon as it’s “stolen” these things will switch to ad-mode. So, it doesn’t matter; theft (sharing) becomes a good thing.
FP - DYNAMIC PUBLISHING
Everything you change from your songs to your schedule is automatically reflected in every FAT Package you put into the marketplace. This isn’t MySpace or Facebook, this is your own FAT Package of things you will simply publish and sell. These things can appear everywhere and anywhere; fans will collect them, display them and trade them.
FP - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Like anything that is desirable or not, it depends on the quality of your package. Over time, I believe a single copy of a FAT Package will generate twenty times the revenue of an MP3. And don’t forget, you will be updating your package continually; thus increasing its’ value over time. FP -
PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE
Since this stuff is not in the marketplace yet, you should be asking yourself what you could do to get ready for the future? I am going to follow up with more on this later, but my primary advice is to learn how to be “episodic”. Your FAT package will have more value when fans know that it’s constantly and continually updated with a stream of good stuff. You may want to reconsider the notion of a “band”; team up with a filmmaker, a writer, a cartoonist, a photographer, and/or other creative people. At the very least, you should reconsider the notion of an album and/or what a song is. Where a song was a permanent snapshot in time, and an album was a time capsule, with FAT Packages this no longer has to be the case; songs could evolve forever, and albums will become journeys. You have to learn how to think like a television series writer; tell a story, develop characters, create drama and mysteries, lash your music to visuals, release things over a multi-year period, and continually evolve your “art”. (etc. etc. etc.). Yeah, this raises the bar and makes life more challenging, however think about this: in 2007-2008 there is barely a circumstance where people listen to music – when a screen or monitor is not present; this includes the car, the gym, the desk, and the pocket. The ability to have a visual or interactive component is always there now. This is not unprecedented; think back one hundred years – this was the only way music was experienced – live, with visuals, and/or attached to a story.The notion of JUST listening to music without experiencing something visual, physical or interactive is only 100 years old. All throughout the rest of time, “music” was always more than just an auditory experience.
In the near future, you will be able to sit down in front of something I will call your Digital Asset Browser; it’s something like iTunes for ALL of your digital stuff - including: your songs, your images, your blog entries, your videos, your show schedule, your fan widgets, your multi-player fan games, your friends list, your comments, your art, your lyrics, your links, your ringtones, YOUR advertisers, and etc. You will then be able to CUSTOM ROLL all of this stuff into a tidy FAT PACKAGE and sell it to your fans.
FP - RUNS ON EVERY DEVICE AND EVERYWHERE
Your Fat Package will run on every single capable mobile and desktop device on earth including television, and it will be deployable upon every social network on the planet.
FP - THE FREE AD-SUPPORTED VERSIONThe FREE, sharable, tradable version will be ad-supported. You will receive a portion of the ad revenue when users interact with your Fat Package. If you are worried about a world gone crazy with advertising, then you should know that this type of package would be one of the most attractive advertising vehicles on earth. The matrix of quality user info (iPhones spitting out profile data for example) combined with the “information-generating” value of this type of engaging content will attract higher CPMs (dollars per thousand impressions) then web pages do now.
FP - THE NO ADS VERSION
Consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time, and they will have the option of applying these minutes to playing with your FAT Package without being molested by intrusive ads. You will also have the option of turning features on and off depending on which version (ads or not) of your FAT Package fans are using.
FP - THEFT WON’T MATTER
As soon as it’s “stolen” these things will switch to ad-mode. So, it doesn’t matter; theft (sharing) becomes a good thing.
FP - DYNAMIC PUBLISHING
Everything you change from your songs to your schedule is automatically reflected in every FAT Package you put into the marketplace. This isn’t MySpace or Facebook, this is your own FAT Package of things you will simply publish and sell. These things can appear everywhere and anywhere; fans will collect them, display them and trade them.
FP - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Like anything that is desirable or not, it depends on the quality of your package. Over time, I believe a single copy of a FAT Package will generate twenty times the revenue of an MP3. And don’t forget, you will be updating your package continually; thus increasing its’ value over time. FP -
PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE
Since this stuff is not in the marketplace yet, you should be asking yourself what you could do to get ready for the future? I am going to follow up with more on this later, but my primary advice is to learn how to be “episodic”. Your FAT package will have more value when fans know that it’s constantly and continually updated with a stream of good stuff. You may want to reconsider the notion of a “band”; team up with a filmmaker, a writer, a cartoonist, a photographer, and/or other creative people. At the very least, you should reconsider the notion of an album and/or what a song is. Where a song was a permanent snapshot in time, and an album was a time capsule, with FAT Packages this no longer has to be the case; songs could evolve forever, and albums will become journeys. You have to learn how to think like a television series writer; tell a story, develop characters, create drama and mysteries, lash your music to visuals, release things over a multi-year period, and continually evolve your “art”. (etc. etc. etc.). Yeah, this raises the bar and makes life more challenging, however think about this: in 2007-2008 there is barely a circumstance where people listen to music – when a screen or monitor is not present; this includes the car, the gym, the desk, and the pocket. The ability to have a visual or interactive component is always there now. This is not unprecedented; think back one hundred years – this was the only way music was experienced – live, with visuals, and/or attached to a story.The notion of JUST listening to music without experiencing something visual, physical or interactive is only 100 years old. All throughout the rest of time, “music” was always more than just an auditory experience.
Freaking Out About The Future - Don’t
CHILL OUT
The sky isn’t falling, and your music will have value beyond the pennies you are currently making from selling MP3s. The future is bright. Go back to making music and let the industry get over this unpleasant hump. Things are going to change and you will make money.
GIVE AWAY YOUR MP3
regularly advise artists NOT to hold out for download revenue. You can read to find out why I recommend giving away at least a demo version (or better) of your MP3s.
THE CD IS ALL DONE
no longer consider selling CDs as a serious revenue option (depends on the genre). Hoping that CD sales will magically rebound is for dreamers. This blog and this post are for those that have moved beyond the CD. You may sell some CDs in 2008-2009, but beyond 2010, CDs will become the novelty item that vinyl is today.
THE MP3 SHOULD BE ALL DONE
The MP3 sucks as a package; it was invented twenty years ago when Jimmy Carter was president, and at a time when computers had about as much power as today’s Happy Meal toys. The MP3 was a necessary evil that changed everything, but its’ time has come. It’s a blasted little invention that
TRANSPORTS
(key term here) nothing but a hearing problem. When Apple can transport 60 minutes of color television programming, soundtrack included, to your pocket for $1.99, you know the MP3 is a dinosaur in comparison.
YOU WILL MAKE MONEY
Here’s why you don’t have to freak out about the future: Fat Packages (FP) and Cool Streams (CS). (I know what you’re thinking – it’s a physical contradiction.)
The sky isn’t falling, and your music will have value beyond the pennies you are currently making from selling MP3s. The future is bright. Go back to making music and let the industry get over this unpleasant hump. Things are going to change and you will make money.
GIVE AWAY YOUR MP3
regularly advise artists NOT to hold out for download revenue. You can read to find out why I recommend giving away at least a demo version (or better) of your MP3s.
THE CD IS ALL DONE
no longer consider selling CDs as a serious revenue option (depends on the genre). Hoping that CD sales will magically rebound is for dreamers. This blog and this post are for those that have moved beyond the CD. You may sell some CDs in 2008-2009, but beyond 2010, CDs will become the novelty item that vinyl is today.
THE MP3 SHOULD BE ALL DONE
The MP3 sucks as a package; it was invented twenty years ago when Jimmy Carter was president, and at a time when computers had about as much power as today’s Happy Meal toys. The MP3 was a necessary evil that changed everything, but its’ time has come. It’s a blasted little invention that
TRANSPORTS
(key term here) nothing but a hearing problem. When Apple can transport 60 minutes of color television programming, soundtrack included, to your pocket for $1.99, you know the MP3 is a dinosaur in comparison.
YOU WILL MAKE MONEY
Here’s why you don’t have to freak out about the future: Fat Packages (FP) and Cool Streams (CS). (I know what you’re thinking – it’s a physical contradiction.)
The Future of Music Coalition
The Future of Music Coalition released a study in partnership with the Media Access Group that found radio consolidation to be detrimental to artists and listeners. Among the many findings of the study was that "A small number of companies control what music is played on specific formats. Coupled with a broad trend toward shorter playlists, this creates few opportunities for musicians to get on the radio. Further, overwhelming consolidation of these formats deprives citizens the opportunity to hear a wide range of music..
"Radio's Big Bully"
he history behind the radio conglomerates and the effects radio consolidation has had on the industry. "Thanks to laissez-faire regulators in Washington," he writes, "Clear Channel quickly has put together a stunning piece of vertical integration in big-money pop culture," he writes. "Last year, the company spent $4.4 billion to purchase SFX Entertainment, the nation's dominant concert venue owner and touring promoter. Clear Channel also owns a radio research company, a format consultancy, regional radio news networks, an airplay monitoring system, syndicated programming, radio trade magazines like the Album Network, 19 television stations and 700,000 outdoor billboards worldwide. With so many resources at hand, the company has all but cut off its business with outside vendors."
did the industry really die ?
Radio is so horrible right now. I don't even understand what the FCC was trying to accomplish. I just am like, what was the goal of this again? I thought you were supposed to be creating opportunity. You gave monopolies. You basically created monopolies. The richest and the strongest took over.
It's such a complicated game that it's hard to maneuver. If you've got a record that's working, and you're on there, you love the system. If you have a song like a "Hey Ya" that all thousand Clear Channel stations are playing, you're in heaven.
But if you have a record that none of the Clear Channel stations are playing, you're out. What do I do? Like, who do I have to pay? It's not good. There's no competition, there's no originality, the playlists don't entertain new artists. There's no new energy. …
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